Upper Bear River Basin (13)
June 2001

Snow
Nearly all the SNOTEL sites in the Bear River basin have melted out. Only one site has any snow. See the Basin Summary of Snow Course Data at the beginning of this report for more detailed information.

Precipitation
Precipitation for the month of May was 32 percent of average for the 2 reporting stations; this is 29 percent of the previous May. The year-to-date precipitation, for the basin, is 66 percent of average; this is 82 percent of last year's amount.

Reservoir
No data was available for Woodruff Narrows reservoir.

Streamflow
The upper Bear River drainage is expected to have much below average runoff this spring. The following 50 percent chance stream flow yields are expected. Smiths Fork near Border is estimated to yield 43,000 acre-feet (39 percent of normal)for the May-September period. Thomas Fork drainage near the Idaho-Wyoming state line is estimated to yield 5,800 acre-feet or 19 percent of normal for the May-September period. Bear River near the Utah-Wyoming State Line is expected to yield about 28,000 acre feet (33 percent of average) for the June-September period. The Bear River near Woodruff is expected to yield about 24,000 acre-feet (about 31 percent of normal) for the June-September period. 


==================================================================================================================================
                                                      UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
                                               Streamflow Forecasts - June 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                              |  <<====== Drier ======  Future Conditions  =======  Wetter =====>>  |             
                                              |                                                                     |
  Forecast Point                     Forecast |  ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ======================  |
                                      Period  |    90%       70%    |  50% (Most Probable)  |      30%       10%    |  30-Yr Avg.
                                              | (1000AF)  (1000AF)  |   (1000AF)  (% AVG.)  |    (1000AF)  (1000AF) |    (1000AF)
====================================================================|=======================|=====================================
SMITHS FK nr Border, WY              MAY-SEP        34        39    |       43        39    |        47        54            109
                                                                    |                       |
THOMAS FK nr WY-ID State Line (Disc. MAY-SEP       3.7       4.8    |      5.8        19    |       7.0       9.1             30
                                                                    |                       |
Bear R nr UT-WY State Line           APR-SEP        51        54    |       57        45    |        60        64            126
                                     JUN-SEP        21        25    |       28        33    |        31        37             84
                                                                    |                       |
BEAR R nr Woodruff, UT               APR-SEP        45        57    |       66        43    |        77        96            154
                                     JUN-SEP      13.5      19.0    |       24        31    |        30        43             77
                                                                    |                       |
==================================================================================================================================
                         UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN                         |                 UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
             Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of May                   |        Watershed Snowpack Analysis - June 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                      Usable |  *** Usable Storage ***  |                            Number     This Year as % of
Reservoir                            Capacity|  This      Last          |   Watershed                  of       =================
                                             |  Year      Year     Avg  |                          Data Sites   Last Yr   Average
========================================================================|=========================================================
WOODRUFF NARROWS                                NO REPORT               |   UPPER BEAR RIVER in Utah    5         0         0
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SMITHS & THOMAS FORKS       3         0         0
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   BEAR RIVER abv ID line      6         0         0
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   NORTHWEST                  47         6         3
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   NORTHEST                   10         4         2
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SOUTHEAST                  20        71        23
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SOUTHWEST                  25        64        11
                                                                        |
==================================================================================================================================
 * 90%, 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

The average is computed for the 1961-1990 base period.

(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.                  
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.
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