Powder and Tongue River Basins (6)
January 2001

Snow
Snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Upper Tongue River drainage is 74 percent of normal (87 percent of last year). The Goose Creek drainage is 84 percent of average (115 percent of last year). Clear Creek drainage is 81 percent of normal SWE (78 percent of last year). Crazy Woman Creek is 59 percent of average (70 percent of last year). The upper Powder River drainage is 68 percent of average (93 percent of last year). The Powder River basin snow water equivalent (SWE), in Wyoming, is about 73 percent of average (86 percent of last year). For more information see Basin Summary of Snow Courses at beginning of report.

Precipitation
December precipitation was 83 percent of average for the 9 reporting stations (64 percent of last year). Monthly percentages range from 20 to 152 percent of average. Precipitation for the year ranges from 72 to 86 percent of average at the reporting stastions. Year-to-date precipitation is about 79 percent of average in the basin; this is 96 percent of last year at this time.

Reservoir
Tongue River Reservoir is currently at 134 percent of average storage for this time of year (34,900 acre feet) - the reservoir is about 51 percent of capacity (total capacity is 68,000 acre feet). Last year at this time the reservoir was storing about 35,900 acre feet - average storage is about 26,000 acre feet for this time of the year. Detailed reservoir data is shown on the following page and on the reservoir storage summary at the beginning of this report.

Streamflow
The following runoff values are for the 50 percent probability during the April through September forecast period. The estimated yield for Tongue River near Dayton is 90,000-acre feet (78 percent of normal). Middle Fork of the Powder River near Barnum is estimated to yield 14,000-acre feet (71 percent of average). The North Fork of the Powder near Hazelton should yield about 7,100 acre-feet (70 percent of normal). The estimated yield for Clear Creek near Buffalo is 29,000 acre-feet (74 percent of average). Rock Creek near Buffalo will yield about 18,000 acre-feet (75 percent of normal), and Piney Creek at Kearny should yield about 39,000 acre-feet (77 percent of average). 

==================================================================================================================================
                                                   POWDER & TONGUE RIVER BASINS
                                               Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                              |  <<====== Drier ======  Future Conditions  =======  Wetter =====>>  |             
                                              |                                                                     |
  Forecast Point                     Forecast |  ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ======================  |
                                      Period  |    90%       70%    |  50% (Most Probable)  |      30%       10%    |  30-Yr Avg.
                                              | (1000AF)  (1000AF)  |   (1000AF)  (% AVG.)  |    (1000AF)  (1000AF) |    (1000AF)
====================================================================|=======================|=====================================
TONGUE RIVER nr Dayton (2)           APR-SEP        59        78    |       90        78    |       102       121            115
                                                                    |                       |
MIDDLE FORK POWDER nr Barnum         APR-SEP       6.3      10.9    |     14.0        71    |      17.1        22           19.7
                                                                    |                       |
NORTH FORK POWDER nr Hazelton        APR-SEP       4.5       6.1    |      7.1        70    |       8.1       9.7           10.1
                                                                    |                       |
CLEAR CREEK nr Buffalo               APR-SEP        20        26    |       29        74    |        33        38             39
                                                                    |                       |
ROCK CREEK nr Buffalo                APR-SEP      12.1      15.6    |     18.0        75    |        20        24             24
                                                                    |                       |
PINEY CREEK at Kearny                APR-SEP      13.5        29    |       39        77    |        49        65             51
                                                                    |                       |
==================================================================================================================================
                      POWDER & TONGUE RIVER BASINS                      |              POWDER & TONGUE RIVER BASINS
             Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of December              |        Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                      Usable |  *** Usable Storage ***  |                            Number     This Year as % of
Reservoir                            Capacity|  This      Last          |   Watershed                  of       =================
                                             |  Year      Year     Avg  |                          Data Sites   Last Yr   Average
========================================================================|=========================================================
TONGUE RIVER                            68.0     34.9     35.9     26.0 |   UPPER TONGUE RIVER          5        87        74
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   GOOSE CREEK                 1       115        84
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   CLEAR CREEK                 2        78        81
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   CRAZY WOMAN CREEK           1        70        59
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   UPPER POWDER RIVER          3        93        68
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   POWDER RIVER in WY          5        86        73
                                                                        |
==================================================================================================================================
 * 90%, 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

The average is computed for the 1961-1990 base period.

(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.                  
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.
To January 2001 Basin Outlook Report Contents Page