Upper Bear River Basin (13)
January 2001

Snow
Snow water equivalent (SWE), at snow courses in the Bear River above the Idaho State line, is 84 percent of average (183 percent of last year). SWE for the Bear River in Utah is estimated to be 78 percent of average; that is about 165 percent of last year at this time. SWE in the Wyoming portion of the Bear River drainage (Smiths and Thomas Forks) is estimated at 88 percent of average (167 percent of last year at this time.). See the Basin Summary of Snow Course Data at the beginning of this report for more detailed information.

Precipitation
Precipitation for the month of December was 81 percent of average for the 1 reporting stations; this is 142 percent of the previous December. The year- to-date precipitation, for the basin, is 85 percent of average; this is 210 percent of last year's amount.

Reservoir
Woodruff Narrows reservoir is currently storing about 6,000 acre feet. Currently, the reservoir is storing about 16 percent of the volume stored December of last year. Current storage is about 10 percent of the reservoir capacity.

Streamflow
The following 50 percent chance stream flow yields are for the April through September period. Smiths Fork near Border is estimated to yield 97,000 acre-feet (82 percent of normal), and Thomas Fork drainage near the Idaho- Wyoming state line is estimated to yield 26,000 acre-feet or 72 percent of normal. Bear River near the Utah-Wyoming State Line is expected to yield about 104,000 acre feet ( 83 percent of average), The Bear River near Woodruff is expected to yield about 129,000 acre-feet (about 84 percent of normal). 

==================================================================================================================================
                                                      UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
                                               Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                              |  <<====== Drier ======  Future Conditions  =======  Wetter =====>>  |             
                                              |                                                                     |
  Forecast Point                     Forecast |  ==================== Chance Of Exceeding * ======================  |
                                      Period  |    90%       70%    |  50% (Most Probable)  |      30%       10%    |  30-Yr Avg.
                                              | (1000AF)  (1000AF)  |   (1000AF)  (% AVG.)  |    (1000AF)  (1000AF) |    (1000AF)
====================================================================|=======================|=====================================
SMITHS FK nr Border, WY              APR-SEP        58        79    |       97        82    |       119       162            118
                                                                    |                       |
THOMAS FK nr WY-ID State Line (Disc. APR-SEP      12.4      19.3    |       26        72    |        35        54             36
                                                                    |                       |
Bear R nr UT-WY State Line           APR-SEP        72        90    |      104        83    |       120       150            126
                                                                    |                       |
BEAR R nr Woodruff, UT               APR-SEP        63        97    |      129        84    |       172       262            154
                                                                    |                       |
==================================================================================================================================
                         UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN                         |                 UPPER BEAR RIVER BASIN
             Reservoir Storage (1000 AF) - End of December              |        Watershed Snowpack Analysis - January 1, 2001
==================================================================================================================================
                                      Usable |  *** Usable Storage ***  |                            Number     This Year as % of
Reservoir                            Capacity|  This      Last          |   Watershed                  of       =================
                                             |  Year      Year     Avg  |                          Data Sites   Last Yr   Average
========================================================================|=========================================================
WOODRUFF NARROWS                        57.3      6.0     37.5      --- |   UPPER BEAR RIVER in Utah    5       165        87
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SMITHS & THOMAS FORKS       3       167        88
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   BEAR RIVER abv ID line      6       183        84
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   NORTHWEST                  55       101        69
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   NORTHEST                   10       102        79
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SOUTHEAST                  20       139        90
                                                                        |
                                                                        |   SOUTHWEST                  25       149        87
                                                                        |
==================================================================================================================================
 * 90%, 70%, 30%, and 10% chances of exceeding are the probabilities that the actual volume will exceed the volumes in the table.

The average is computed for the 1961-1990 base period.

(1) - The values listed under the 10% and 90% Chance of Exceeding are actually 5% and 95% exceedance levels.                  
(2) - The value is natural volume - actual volume may be affected by upstream water management.
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