The Climate Record: What does it Mean?
A Treatise to the Choir

Tony Bergantino
Assistant State Climatologist, Wyoming

Butte, Montana, 29 December 2001 - The week after Christmas in Butte, a light snow fell continuously the day of the 28th of December, and into the early morning of the 29th. According to the measurements at the airport (outfitted with ASOS in 2000), I had the dubious honor of helping to shovel several 'traces of snow.' I had arrived in Butte the previous Friday, the 21st, in a minor snowfall. After this snowfall, the total precipitation for December was .08" This morning, with a new thick blanket of snow, the total still stands at .08" Not one to believe that 3.25" of snow, even at a 20:1 Snow Water Ratio, could produce only a trace, I made my own measurements, measuring the depth of the snowfall in several locations, and collecting relative samples.

The snow, when melted, gave a hefty 0.23" water equivalent, roughly a 14:1 ratio. Yet, incredibly, the airport reports a trace. If one looks at the plots from the NWS (See Graphic Below) he will see that there are 22 hourly recordings of a 'trace' starting at 0400 on the 28th and ending at 0300 on the 29th.


Click to Enlarge

Looking at the hourly METAR observations, one sees the same thing. Hourly traces (except for around 1600 on the 28th), and traces reported for the 3- and 6-hourly obs as well. Mysteriously, the column for 24-hour obs is blank. (See Table at Bottom of Article) The times of recorded precipitation coincide with what I observed manually.


22 Dec 2001

28 Dec 2001 (0900)

29 Dec 2001 (1100)
Click Images to Enlarge

Where lies the difference? Did the airport recieve less snowfall? No, the snowfall reported there was roughly the same as I measured manually. The problem is that the 24-hour total (if even reported, See Metar Table Below) and the 3- and 6-hour must be calculated by adding the hourly obs, not by actual collection. Six traces is still a trace, and apparently 24 traces still are also just a trace. Yet, if each of those traces were even .001" a daily total of .02"+ should result.


22 Dec 2001

29 Dec 2001 (1300)
Click Images to Enlarge

No wonder Butte is approximately 83% of normal for annual precipitation. How are we as climatologists supposed to do our job when our data is only as good as this? Has it been drier lately? Quite probably, but not to the extent that numbers such as this would lead us to believe. How can a longterm climate record be established when the data are this inaccurate and included with values taken previously by other instruments?

Is the Historical Climate Network necessary? Absolutely, but with the strong caveat of attention to the measurements that come from it. In addition, the individuals running the stations have to be trained and responsible. Not individuals who simply accept and report any number that comes from the instrument array. In the case of the missing .23" in Butte, all that would have been necessary to catch the misreport would be common sense. Afterall, a greater-than 360:1 snow to water ratio should raise even the most heavy of eyebrows.

48-Hour Decoded METAR: Butte FAA

                                                                                                                3-hr
                                                                                           6hr 6hr 24h 24h 1-hr 6-hr 24hr
               tmp dew rh   wind    wnd barom uncor   vis                                  max min max min pcpn pcpn pcpn  alt
   date/time    F   F   %    mph    chl   in  press    mi    weather        clouds          F   F   F   F   in   in   in  settg
-------------- --- --- --- -------- --- ----- ------ ----- ---------- -------------------- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- -----
29 10:53am MST  21  18  88  CALM        30.23 24.517 10.00            OVC044                22  14                        30.06
29 09:53am MST  20  17  88  CALM        30.22 24.509 10.00            OVC044                                              30.05
29 08:53am MST  19  16  88  CALM        30.22 24.492 10.00            OVC046                                              30.03
29 07:53am MST  18  15  88  CALM        30.19 24.475 10.00            OVC050                                              30.01
29 06:53am MST  18  15  88  CALM        30.18 24.466 10.00            OVC050                                              30.00
29 05:53am MST  16  15  96  S  5        30.18 24.458  5.00 BR         OVC050                                              29.99
29 04:53am MST  14  12  92  CALM        30.18 24.466 10.00            OVC055                21  10                 T      30.00
29 03:53am MST  11   9  92  CALM        30.20 24.475 10.00            OVC055                                              30.01
29 02:53am MST  15  14  95  CALM        30.19 24.475  6.00 BR         OVC060                                  T           30.01
29 01:53am MST  19  17  92  CALM        30.16 24.466  4.00 -SN BR     SCT023 BKN034 OVC060                    T    T      30.00
29 01:33am MST  19  18  93  S  3              24.458  3.00 -SN BR     FEW019 OVC038                           T           29.99
29 12:53am MST  20  18  92  CALM        30.15 24.458  2.50 -SN BR     FEW019 OVC032                           T           29.99
29 12:27am MST  19  18  93  CALM              24.458  1.50 -SN BR     SCT009 BKN023 OVC031                    T           29.99
29 12:11am MST  19  18  93  CALM              24.458  1.25 -SN BR     BKN009 OVC023                           T           29.99
28 11:53pm MST  21  19  92  CALM        30.14 24.458  1.50 -SN BR     BKN013 BKN040 OVC050          24  10    T           29.99
28 10:53pm MST  20  18  92  CALM        30.14 24.441  8.00            BKN055 OVC080         23  19            T    T      29.97
28 09:53pm MST  20  18  92  CALM        30.14 24.441  7.00            BKN060 OVC080                           T           29.97
28 09:30pm MST  19  18  93 SE  3              24.441  5.00 -SN BR     BKN049 BKN060 OVC080                    T           29.97
28 09:22pm MST  19  18  93  S  3              24.449  2.50 -SN BR     BKN045 OVC060                           T           29.98
28 08:53pm MST  19  17  92  CALM        30.16 24.449  5.00 -SN BR     BKN034 BKN049 OVC070                    T           29.98
28 08:36pm MST  19  18  93  CALM              24.449  1.50 -SN BR     BKN019 OVC036                           T           29.98
28 08:26pm MST  19  18  93  CALM              24.449  2.50 -SN BR     BKN018 BKN034 OVC055                    T           29.98
28 07:53pm MST  20  17  88  S  7        30.16 24.449  4.00 -SN BR     FEW036 SCT060 OVC075                    T    T      29.98
28 06:53pm MST  20  18  92  CALM        30.17 24.458  3.00 -SN BR     FEW008 BKN046 OVC060                    T           29.99
28 06:39pm MST  21  18  86  CALM              24.458  5.00 -SN BR     FEW008 OVC038                           T           29.99
28 05:53pm MST  20  18  92  CALM        30.16 24.449  5.00 BR         OVC040                                  T           29.98
28 05:17pm MST  21  19  93  CALM              24.449  4.00 -SN BR     FEW032 OVC050                           T           29.98
28 04:53pm MST  23  21  92  CALM        30.15 24.449  2.50 -SN BR     BKN034 OVC048         24  20            T    T      29.98
28 04:42pm MST  23  19  86  CALM              24.449  2.50 -SN BR     OVC037                                  T           29.98
28 03:53pm MST  24  20  84  CALM        30.14 24.449 10.00            BKN036 OVC046                                       29.98
28 02:53pm MST  23  20  88  CALM        30.15 24.441 10.00            OVC038                                  T           29.97
28 01:53pm MST  23  19  85  CALM        30.15 24.432  5.00 BR         SCT022 BKN042 BKN090                    T    T      29.96
28 12:53pm MST  24  19  81  N  3        30.16 24.441  3.00 -SN        FEW023 BKN028 OVC037                    T           29.97
28 12:39pm MST  23  19  86  CALM              24.441  2.50 -SN BR     BKN030 OVC040                           T           29.97
28 12:27pm MST  23  19  86  CALM              24.441  2.00 -SN BR     BKN028 OVC035                           T           29.97
28 12:04pm MST  21  19  93  CALM              24.449  1.00 -SN BR     VV019                                   T           29.98
28 11:56am MST  21  19  93  CALM              24.449  0.75 -SN BR     VV014                                   T           29.98
28 11:53am MST  22  19  88  CALM        30.19 24.449  1.00 -SN BR     VV015                                   T           29.98
28 11:33am MST  21  18  86  CALM              24.449  1.75 -SN BR     OVC019                                  T           29.98
28 11:19am MST  21  18  86  CALM              24.449  2.50 -SN BR     OVC025                                  T           29.98
28 11:11am MST  21  18  86  CALM              24.449  3.00 -SN BR     BKN027 BKN035 OVC050                    T           29.98
28 11:01am MST  19  18  93  CALM              24.449  4.00 BR         OVC034                                  T           29.98
28 10:53am MST  21  18  88  CALM        30.21 24.449  2.50 -SN BR     BKN034 OVC050         21  16            T    T      29.98
28 10:46am MST  21  18  86  CALM              24.449  2.00 -SN BR     BKN033 OVC050                           T           29.98
28 10:07am MST  19  18  93  N  3              24.432  1.00 -SN BR     SCT013 BKN023 OVC029                    T           29.96
28 10:00am MST  19  18  93 NE  5              24.432  0.75 -SN BR     BKN011 BKN023 OVC029                    T           29.96
28 09:53am MST  19  17  92  N  5        30.19 24.424  0.75 -SN BR     BKN009 BKN023 OVC029                    T           29.95
28 09:33am MST  19  18  93  N  6              24.416  0.75 -SN BR     BKN007 OVC023                           T           29.94
28 09:25am MST  19  18  93  N  3              24.416  0.75 -SN BR     FEW001 BKN005 OVC020                    T           29.94
28 08:53am MST  19  17  92  CALM        30.14 24.399  0.50 SN FZFG    BKN003 BKN007 OVC026                    T           29.92
28 08:29am MST  18  18 100  CALM              24.382  0.50 SN FZFG    BKN009 OVC026                           T           29.90
28 07:53am MST  18  16  92  CALM        30.11 24.373  1.25 -SN BR     BKN009 OVC020                           T    T      29.89
28 07:43am MST  18  16  93  CALM              24.365  1.50 -SN BR     SCT009 OVC020                           T           29.88
28 07:39am MST  18  16  93  CALM              24.365  2.00 -SN BR     FEW011 OVC020                           T           29.88
28 06:53am MST  17  15  92  CALM        30.09 24.348  1.25 -SN BR     FEW006 SCT015 OVC022                    T           29.86
28 06:42am MST  18  16  93  CALM              24.339  1.00 -SN BR     SCT004 BKN015 OVC022                    T           29.85
28 06:12am MST  18  16  93  CALM              24.322  0.50 SN FZFG    VV004                                   T           29.83
28 05:53am MST  17  15  92 SE  3        30.04 24.322  0.75 -SN BR     VV006                                   T           29.83
28 05:42am MST  18  14  86  S  3              24.314  0.75 -SN BR     VV006                                   T           29.82
28 05:16am MST  18  14  86  CALM              24.314  1.00 -SN BR     VV008                                   T           29.82
28 05:01am MST  18  12  79  CALM              24.314  1.50 -SN BR     OVC012                                  T           29.82
28 04:53am MST  17  13  83  CALM        29.99 24.314  1.50 -SN BR     BKN016 OVC032         17   4            T    T      29.82
28 04:44am MST  18  12  79  CALM              24.305  1.75 -SN BR     BKN018 BKN032 OVC044                    T           29.81
28 04:38am MST  18  12  79 SE  3              24.305  2.00 -SN        SCT020 BKN032 OVC044                    T           29.81
28 03:53am MST  17  10  73 SE  5        29.98 24.314 10.00            OVC042                                              29.82
28 02:53am MST  14   8  77 SE  3        29.99 24.322 10.00            BKN042 OVC085                                       29.83
28 02:15am MST  14   9  79  CALM              24.322 10.00            BKN030 BKN036 OVC085                                29.83
28 02:05am MST  12   9  85  E  5              24.322 10.00            BKN028 BKN060 OVC090                                29.83
28 01:53am MST  12   7  80 SW  3        30.02 24.331 10.00            FEW028 OVC090                                       29.84
28 12:53am MST  11   6  80  CALM        30.03 24.322 10.00            SCT055 BKN075 OVC090                                29.83
27 11:53pm MST  10   5  80  CALM        30.08 24.348 10.00            OVC070                        26  -8                29.86
27 10:53pm MST   4  -1  80  E  5        30.16 24.365 10.00            BKN070                20   2                        29.88
27 09:53pm MST   4   0  83  CALM        30.19 24.365 10.00            CLR                                                 29.88
27 08:53pm MST   7   2  79  CALM        30.21 24.373 10.00            CLR                                                 29.89
27 07:53pm MST   7   2  79  CALM        30.24 24.382 10.00            CLR                                                 29.90
27 06:53pm MST   6   1  79 SE  6        30.24 24.399 10.00            CLR                                                 29.92
27 05:53pm MST  10   3  73  S  5        30.24 24.407 10.00            CLR                                                 29.93
27 04:53pm MST  20   7  57 SE  3        30.20 24.416 10.00            CLR                   26   9                        29.94
27 03:53pm MST  23   8  52  S  3        30.22 24.441 10.00            CLR                                                 29.97
27 02:53pm MST  26   7  44  CALM        30.22 24.458 10.00            CLR                                                 29.99
27 01:53pm MST  24   7  47  CALM        30.24 24.466 10.00            CLR                                                 30.00
27 12:53pm MST  20   6  54  CALM        30.29 24.483 10.00            CLR                                                 30.02
27 11:53am MST  15   5  64  CALM        30.34 24.517 10.00            CLR                                                 30.06

Wyoming State Climatologist

Water Resources Data System

The Wyoming State Climatologist Office is funded by the
Wyoming Water Development Commission

WEBMASTER: stateclim@wrds.uwyo.edu
Last reviewed or update: 29 December, 2001